THE MECHANISMS OF REGIONAL EMPOWERMENT AND GROWTH FORECASTS FOR THE LOW-ALTITUDE ECONOMY BASED ON SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS AND BACKWARD INFERENCE

Abstract

This study examines the regional spillover effects of low-altitude economic development in the Pearl River Delta. By systematically processing panel data from 2010 to 2023, a multi-model integrated analytical framework was constructed. During the data preprocessing stage, linear interpolation was used to impute missing values, and Z-score standardization was applied to eliminate dimensional differences, ensuring the stability of the regression analysis. Theoretically, the study employed the entropy weighting method to calculate a comprehensive evaluation index, utilized grey correlation analysis to quantify the closeness between indicators of various dimensions of the low-altitude economy and regional gross domestic product (GDP), and validated the significant pull effect of industrial policies on the economic growth of core cities through a double-difference model. To reveal the spatial spillover mechanism, the study constructed a matrix of spatial adjacency and inverse geographic distance. By applying tools such as the spatial Durbin model, it captured significant spatial dependence, confirming that Shenzhen and Guangzhou, as high-value core areas, exert a powerful technological spillover and industrial chain radiation effect on surrounding cities. The results indicate that the development of the low-altitude economy is closely related to its spatial distribution characteristics, with cities possessing a strong economic foundation exhibiting greater spatial dependence. Furthermore, by integrating historical data on industry financing and logistics scale, the study provides quantitative forecasts of future growth trends, offering algorithmic support and empirical evidence for coordinated regional development.