COMMUNITY ELDERLY-CARE SERVICE DEMAND PREDICTION BASED ON STATE RECURSION AND CONSUMPTION-CONSTRAINED CORRECTION
Keywords:
State recursion, Markov transition, Elderly-care service demand, Consumption constraint, Community service stationAbstract
This paper develops a demand-prediction framework for embedded community elderly-care service stations by combining state recursion, service-frequency estimation, and consumption-constrained correction. First, a three-state elderly population recursion model is established for self-care, semi-disabled, and disabled residents. Initial community population structures, natural mortality, newly added elderly ratios, and health-state transition probabilities are used to predict the population of each group over a five-year period. Second, the predicted elderly population is converted into theoretical monthly demand for meal assistance, day care, home-based nursing, rehabilitation physiotherapy, bathing assistance, and emergency rescue. Third, income level, available consumption proportion, service price, and free emergency assistance are introduced to revise chargeable demand under affordability constraints. The results indicate that the total elderly population grows steadily, disabled elderly residents increase markedly, communities C and G generate the highest service pressure, and chargeable demand is reduced unevenly across elderly groups after consumption constraints are considered, providing evidence for service-station capacity and resource allocation decisions.References
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