GLOBAL COUNTER-PROLIFERATION FINANCING GOVERNANCE: OVERCOMING THE TRIPLE DILEMMA IN THE VUCA ERA

Abstract

Against the backdrop of the global VUCA era characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, the Counter-Proliferation Financing (CPF) governance system confronts unprecedented systemic challenges. This paper examines the triple dilemma of technological disruption, institutional fragmentation, and political polarization that currently besets global CPF governance. Drawing upon international relations theory and public goods economics, the study analyzes how technological, institutional, and political failures intertwine to produce emergent systemic risks. The paper argues that the traditional Westphalian governance paradigm exhibits structural lag in addressing transnational proliferation financing risks. It proposes a paradigm shift from rule-based to risk-based governance, emphasizing multilateral cooperation, technological interoperability, and inclusive institutional design. The study advocates for strengthening international public goods provision, enhancing cross-border data-sharing mechanisms, and empowering developing countries through capacity-building initiatives to ensure that CPF governance becomes more effective, equitable, and sustainable.