POWER BALANCE MODEL FOR GRID-CONNECTED GREEN POWER-TO-HYDROGEN-TO-AMMONIA PARKS

Abstract

Against the background of large-scale development of green hydrogen and ammonia industries, green power directly connected parks face prominent challenges in operational compliance and economic performance, due to the inherent conflict between renewable volatility and rigid industrial loads. Existing studies mostly rely on low-temporal-resolution models or focus on single optimization objectives, lacking a systematic framework that uncovers fine-grained power interaction mechanisms and quantifies the coupling of compliance and economy. To address this gap, this paper establishes a refined hourly power balance model that systematically integrates wind-photovoltaic output, conventional load, and rigid loads of electrolyzers and ammonia synthesis units. The core innovation lies in constructing a unified multi-dimensional quantitative framework that simultaneously realizes hourly power matching, green compliance assessment, and ammonia cost accounting, breaking the limitation of isolated single-objective research. Typical day calculation results show that the park’s renewable generation reaches 603.45 MWh, exceeding the total electricity consumption of 558.72 MWh. However, significant time mismatch between renewable output and rigid load leads to 172.04 MWh grid purchase and 216.77 MWh surplus feed-in. In terms of compliance, the green power proportion meets standards, while self-consumption rate and feed-in ratio fail policy requirements, with ammonia production cost at 4,287.78 yuan per ton. The findings confirm time mismatch as the core bottleneck. The proposed model provides an effective algorithmic tool and reliable quantitative reference for the operation optimization and policy formulation of grid-connected green power-to-hydrogen-to-ammonia parks.